Analysts say Thailand's tourism has passed its trough and is heading into recovery

Thailand's tourism looks to have turned a corner. In recent broker research reported by the Bangkok Post, analysts at KGI Securities (Thailand) said the sector "has passed its trough and entered a recovery phase," with momentum expected to build from July as summer holidays in China, the Middle East and other source markets bring more travellers. The read is cautious rather than euphoric. Middle East tensions still weigh on the picture, and the fourth quarter could stay relatively flat. But the direction has changed.

The clearest signs are in long-haul markets. KGI figures show European arrivals grew 5% year-on-year in July, reversing a 2% dip in May and a 6% decline in the second quarter. Arrivals from the Middle East rose 11% in July after gains of 20% to 28% earlier in the year. Northeast Asia was up 5% and South Asia added 3%. Together these numbers point to demand returning across several regions at once.

Currency is part of the story. Kasikorn Research Center notes the baht has weakened about 5.9% against the US dollar so far this year, the third-softest performance among Asian currencies after the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee. For visitors, a softer baht simply means their money stretches further once they arrive. Boonyakorn Amornsank, an analyst at Maybank Securities (Thailand), said the weaker currency should improve the competitiveness of Thai tourism.

Policy is helping too. After Thailand waived the 2,000-baht visa-on-arrival fee for Indian travellers in June 2026 and reinstated 30-day visa-free entry, Maybank expects airline seat-capacity forecasts to be revised upward. Aviation data from Cirium already shows a 3% year-on-year rise in seat capacity for the third quarter. Chinese carriers are restoring flights carefully, and the reopened Indian market gives airlines a reason to add seats on those routes again.

The government's own measures add support. Domestic airfare subsidies and charter-flight incentives are designed to keep travel moving through the quieter months and into the high season, when several large events, each expected to draw more than 100,000 people, should lift arrivals. Analysts also welcomed the emphasis by the Tourism Authority of Thailand and the Tourism and Sports Ministry on the quality of visits rather than raw headcount. KGI kept its full-year estimate at 32.1 million foreign arrivals, up 2.7% from 2025.

For someone planning a trip, the practical takeaway is straightforward. A friendlier exchange rate leaves more room in the budget for the things that make a stay memorable, like day trips and the freedom to move at your own pace. As more visitors return, roads and ferry piers in Phuket, Samui and the northern towns get busier, and sorting out reliable transport early becomes part of good planning.

This is where clear, everyday services matter. Balm Rentals is a marketplace for renting bikes, scooters and cars across Thailand, built so a traveller can see the price, deposit and conditions before paying rather than at the counter. Listings and support are offered in the visitor's own language, and the platform works with legal, checked rental partners. The aim is to make a familiar holiday task, arranging a set of wheels, feel calm and predictable.

Balm sees itself as a complement to Thailand's local operators and the wider push toward higher-quality service, not a replacement for them. Bringing verified providers into one app on iOS and Android, with transparent terms and a clear record of the agreement, adds convenience for guests and steady demand for the shops that keep their standards high. In a recovering market, that kind of dependable groundwork tends to matter as much as the arrival numbers.

None of this is guaranteed. The forecasts rest on external factors that can shift, from fuel prices to regional security. Still, the analysts' message is a hopeful one for the season ahead. The low point looks to be behind, and travellers heading to Thailand in late 2026 can expect a welcoming country that keeps getting easier to move around.